Analysis: Which teams will be relegated from the Premier League and move to the Championship?

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The fight to avoid relegation to the Championship appears to be getting close for some of the Premier League teams in the bottom half of the standings. 

Following Southampton’s loss to Nottingham Forest yesterday evening, they are now stuck at the bottom of the standings, eight points outside of safety, and in danger of being demoted.

But with three games remaining for each side and three points separating the top four teams, there is sure to be plenty more drama. Everton and Forest were the main victors over the last several days, while Leeds, Leicester, and Saints all suffered defeats. 

The chances of Leeds United and Leicester City surviving relegation to the Championship have been significantly impacted by Everton’s shocking 5-1 victory against Brighton, in addition to both teams’ losses.

Everton was the second favourite to lose before the weekend; today, they are the outsider of the five with a 26% chance. Nottingham Forest’s possibility of falling from 53% before the weekend to 34% as a result of their victory over Southampton, who are currently in last place.

The most likely clubs to join Southampton in the Championship next season are Leeds United (73%) and Leicester City (68%). However, any remaining games which end in victories at this point in the season can quickly change a club’s situation.

Leicester City (16th, 33 points)

Steve Cooper has bought 30 players to keep Notts Forest in the Premier League after they were promoted from the Championship last season for the first time since 1998–99.

They currently have 33 points, which makes them the best of the bottom five after their past three victories.  Except for Brentford, Nottingham Forest has made fewer passes than any other Premier League side this year.

Remaining fixtures: May 13 vs Chelsea, May 20 vs Arsenal, and May 28 vs Crystal Palace.

Everton (17th, 32 points)

After Sean Dyche took over as manager at the end of January following the firing of Frank Lampard, Everton’s performance has slightly improved, but not enough to keep them out of trouble.

Wolves and Bournemouth are two of their last three opponents, and both of these teams are in the bottom eight. Only Bournemouth has allowed more goal attempts from opponents this season. The third most goals let up are by Leicester City, and the fourth are by Nottingham Forest.

Remaining fixtures: May 14 vs Manchester City, May 20 vs Wolves, and May 28 vs Bournemouth.

Leicester City (18th, 30 points)

Leicester saw a strong finish in eighth place last year and advanced to the semifinals of the Europa Conference League, but they had a terrible start to this season, earning only one point in their first seven games.

Despite Dean Smith taking over as manager until the end of the season after Brendan Rodgers was fired, Liverpool’s 5-3 loss at Fulham on Monday left them in the relegation spots.

Leicester boasts a wealth of offensive skill, but they have struggled to prevent goals from being allowed in their last 19 games.

Remaining fixtures: May 15 vs Liverpool, May 22 vs Newcastle, and May 28 vs West Ham

Leeds United (19th, 30 points)

Having lost seven straight games when Jesse Marsch was fired as Leeds’ manager in February, Javi Gracia took over as temporary manager before being replaced just a few days ago by Sam Allardyce.

The top seven teams are the opponents in two of Leeds’ last three games. The run-in will be missed out on by winger Luis Sinisterra, whose goal against Leicester was his third in as many appearances.

Remaining fixtures: 13th May vs Newcastle, 21 May vs West Ham, and 28 May vs Tottenham

Southampton (20th, 24 points)

After firing Ralph Hasenhuttl in November, Southampton is now in the midst of their third managerial change of the year.

He was succeeded by Nathan Jones, who only managed to lead eight Premier League games and record one victory before being given the boot.

Manager Ruben Selles took over, but he has also now led 10 games, unfortunately losing seven of those.

Southampton has only managed four clean sheets so far this year. The Saints are joined in the bottom four for clean sheets by Leeds United, who have five clean sheets, Leicester City who have six and Nottingham Forest who have seven. These teams are all involved in the relegation fight.
Remaining fixtures: May 13 vs Fulham, May 21 vs Brighton, and May 28 vs Liverpool.

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