Who will be relegated from the Premier League to the Championship?

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While the fight for Premier League survival up until now was strong and unclear, there are some indications that the situation regarding relegation is now starting to clear up.

There were the fewest points ever between clubs in positions 12 and 20 in the Premier League at the beginning of April when Crystal Palace was in 12th place and bottom-of-the-table Southampton was in 20th. Less than a month later, there have been significant shifts as Bournemouth, Wolves, Crystal Palace, and West Ham have made serious attempts to stay in the Premiership.

Although there are currently 13 points separating bottom-place Saints from 12th-place Crystal Palace, the bottom five teams are still only separated by six points. Could we be looking at three games left out of the five or six in the group that consists of Everton, Leeds, and Leicester.

With our analysis, you can see the likelihood of each side avoiding relegation.

The bottom standings

15th- Bournemouth (P: 32, GD: -32, PTS; 33)

16th- Leeds Utd (P: 33, GD: -21, PTS: 30)

17th- Leicester (P: 33, GD: -13, PTS: 29)

18th- Everton (P: 32, GD: -22, PTS: 28)

19th- Nottingham Forest (P: 32, GD: -33, PTS: 27)

20th- Southampton (P: 32, GD: -29, PTS: 24)

Bournemouth, 33 points

Scott Parker, who led Bournemouth to promotion from the Championship to the Premiership last year, was fired after he criticised the club’s summer player transfers following a Premier League record-equaling 9-0 loss at Liverpool in August. Bournemouth were the first team in the top division to do so this year.

Since then, Gary O’Neil has served as their manager, initially temporarily until being appointed permanently in November. The Cherries have struggled in the league, losing all seven of their opening games after the World Cup.

However, Bournemouth has won five of its previous ten games, including four of those in the last seven games. With almost a 50% possibility of relegation at the beginning of April, they are currently on the verge of safety thanks to their greatest form of the year.

Matches left:  

  • 27 April – Southampton (away)
  • 30 April – Leeds (home)
  • 6 May – Chelsea (home)
  • 13 May- Crystal Palace (away)
  • 20 May – Manchester United (home)
  • 28 May- Everton (away)

Leeds United, 30 points 

With the team on a seven-game losing streak when Jesse Marsch was fired as manager in February, things have become worse for Javi Gracia since taking over. Leeds United’s recent 10-match performance is somewhat better than their season-long performance despite the home thrashings by Crystal Palace and Liverpool. 

On Tuesday, they drew 1-1 with relegation-threatened Leicester, and their next match is against Bournemouth.

Their odds of being relegated would be lower if they had managed to defeat Leicester at home, however, Jamie Vardy’s late leveller sadly increased that chance. Leeds has played three of the top seven teams in its past four games.

Matches left:

  • 30 April – Bournemouth (away)
  • 6 May – Manchester City (away)
  • 13 May – Newcastle (home)
  • 21 May – West Ham (away)
  • 28 May – Tottenham (home)

Leicester City, 29 points

Although Leicester City finished ninth last year and advanced to the semifinals of the Europa League, they had a terrible start to this year’s campaign, earning only one point in their first seven games.

Dean Smith has taken over as manager until the conclusion of the current campaign. He was responsible for Saturday’s victory over Wolves, which halted a nine-match losing streak and lifted the team out of the relegation zone.

Leicester’s odds of getting relegated dropped after Vardy’s late goal against Leeds.

Matches left:

  • 1 May – Everton (home)
  • 8 May Fulham (away)
  • 15 May Liverpool (home)
  • 22 May Newcastle (away)
  • 28 May West Ham (home)

Everton, 28 points

After Sean Dyche took over as manager at the end of January following the firing of Frank Lampard, Everton’s performance had improved, but not enough to keep them out of trouble.

In the Premier League, Everton has the lowest rate of successful shots. Less than half as many of their efforts have resulted in goals as the top teams (Manchester City 15.7%, Arsenal 14.4%, and Brentford 14.1%), who have scored from just 6.6% of their attempts. 

In Dyche’s debut game as manager, they defeated Premier League leaders Arsenal. Since then, they have defeated Leeds and Brentford and drawn against Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.

The Toffees, who have competed in the English Premier League every year since 1954–1955, have struck a wall and have only gained two points over the last four games.

Everton could be able to stay in the Premier League if they maintain their point average from the previous ten games. 

Matches left:

  • 27 Apr – Newcastle (home)
  • 1 May – Leicester (away)
  • 8 May – Brighton (away)
  • 14 May – Manchester City (home)
  • 20 May – Wolves (away)
  • 28 May – Bournemouth (home)

Nottingham Forest, 27 points

After gaining promotion from the Championship the previous season, Nottingham Forest is playing in the Premier League for the first time since 1998–99. Steve Cooper has bought 30 players in an effort to retain Nottingham Forest at the highest level.

They are the only relegation contender without a victory in their previous ten Premier League games. Forest’s most recent victory came on February 5 against Leeds United by a score of 1-0.

Forest’s final six games feature four matches against the top 11 clubs in the Premier League. Forest has only collected eight points out of a possible 54 in 18 games against these opponents this season, winning only once (1-0 vs Liverpool).

Matches left:

  • 26 April – Brighton (home)
  • 29 April – Brentford (away)
  • 8 May – Southampton (home)
  • 13 May – Chelsea (away)
  • 20 May – Arsenal (home)
  • 28 May – Crystal Palace (away)

Southampton, 24 points

After firing manager Ralph Hasenhuttl in November, Southampton is now in the midst of their third managerial change of the year. Nathan Jones took over after Hasenhuttl, although he only managed to win one of his eight Premier League games before being let go as well.

Next in line for the position was Ruben Selles, Hasenhuttl’s assistant manager, but the team had already lost seven straight games.

Their only point in their previous four games—a draw against Arsenal on Friday—seems to be too little, too late. Southampton now faces clubs from the top half in four of its last six games.

Matches left:

  • 27 Apr – Bournemouth (home)
  • 30 Apr – Newcastle (away)
  • 8 May – Nottingham Forest (away)
  • 13 May – Fulham (home)
  • 21 May – Brighton (away)
  • 28 May – Liverpool (home)

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